@ChrisMayLA6

I'm betting this is a profit taking dip, but I'm talking my book, and I'm well shy of rich enough to be taken seriously on that count.

That $1.65tn in off-book debt, on the other hand, is of the same order of magnitude as the GFC bad/misrated debt. Hopefully one of these dips will get the regulators to listen to those of us begging for credit reserves to be imposed on banks exposed to the AI/LLM bubble, and maybe have a chat with a pension fund or two.

(There was an anticipation of a push towards regulatory oversight in 🇨🇦 for pension fund risk management about 12 years ago. Investment banking risk management techniques are a poor fit, though, so that seems to have petered out.)

@ChrisMayLA6 It may or may not be connected, but I read yesterday that a Chinese company had succeeded in producing the lithography machines that China now depends on ASML for. (That is why ASML’s shares dropped some 8%.)

Small impact for now because the number they can produce is small. But the thing is: if this is true, then the US lost one of the few actual brakes on China’s AI advancements. And we’ve already seen from DeepSeek and Kimi that Chinese companies can beat the US in AI efficiency. American AI’s profit model is at stake if the Chinese start massively rolling out much cheaper, very adequate AI.