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Citrinowicz says #Iran has gained room to maneuver & the deal risks entrenching its position while deepening #Israel's isolation. "Everything is bad," he said bluntly. "And it's only going to get worse."
If the agreement holds, Iran appears to secure the stronger outcome: an end to the #war, phased #sanctions relief, renewed #oil exports & the prospect of vast reconstruction funds [#PalletsOfCash] —alongside implicit acceptance of its political system.
@Nonilex Oooops. Live and learn.
@Nonilex In summary, this reads like the Israeli commenter saying "When we made a deal with the leopard, we didn't count on it being to true to its spots. And now it's eaten our face."
Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz described the agreement as a strategic "catastrophe". What had been framed as a joint #US – #Israel campaign to weaken, or even topple the Islamic Republic has, in his view, flipped into US recognition of #Iran.
"We went to topple the regime with US backing & ended with Washington effectively giving legitimacy & strengthening the same regime we wanted to bring down," said Citrinowicz, a snr Iran researcher at Israel's Institute for #NationalSecurity Studies.
@Nonilex Trump capitulated to Afghanistan and he has just done it again.
He says the deal delivers none of Israel's core demands: no curbs on Iran's missile program or proxies & no clear path to dismantling its #nuclear facilities. Even Israel's campaign in #Lebanon has been constrained by the #ceasefire framework imposed at Iran's insistence.
The fallout is both political & strategic. The deal undercuts #Netanyahu's narrative on #Iran & exposes the limits of his leverage with a #US president seen as closely aligned with #Israel.
@Nonilex he paid some extras to reinstate the Obama deal with his name on it this time. Assume couple billions and a weaker global position is well worth it
@Nonilex funny how the subject of the #israel ‘s nuclear weapons are never mentioned in these conversations #iran #lebanon #palestine
Citrinowicz says #Iran has gained room to maneuver & the deal risks entrenching its position while deepening #Israel's isolation. "Everything is bad," he said bluntly. "And it's only going to get worse."
If the agreement holds, Iran appears to secure the stronger outcome: an end to the #war, phased #sanctions relief, renewed #oil exports & the prospect of vast reconstruction funds [#PalletsOfCash] —alongside implicit acceptance of its political system.
The #US, by contrast, falls far short of goals it shared with #Israel: toppling the #ClericalRegime, dismantling #Iran's #nuclear program & curbing its regional reach. Rather than reshaping Iran's position, the deal restores & strengthens it.
[also now Iran essentially controls the #StraitOfHormuz which it did not before. #Trump acts like its reopening is some huge feat, it was open before.]
#geopolitics #NewWorldOrder #TrumpsWar #IranWar #NationalSecurity #economy #idiocracy #kakistocracy
For #Lebanon, the agreement tilts the balance toward #Iran, reinforcing the role of Tehran-backed #Hezbollah & folding the country into a broader #US – Iran framework while sidelining Beirut – #Israel talks.
It binds Lebanon into the 60-day ceasefire, committing all sides to halt operations across all fronts.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun warned last week that Iran cannot negotiate on Lebanon's behalf on issues such as the ceasefire & Israeli withdrawal from southern territory.
Alarm is sharpest in #GulfStates, where #Iran attacks have shaken confidence in long-standing #security arrangements. Gulf #allies have emerged as the war's main losers—spectators to decisions that reshaped their security landscape & now left to absorb the fallout.
Gulf sources say the deal is already reshaping strategic thinking∶ eroding confidence in #US protection, entrenching Iran as an enduring regional force & accelerating a shift toward accommodation rather than confrontation.
@Nonilex What did they think would happen with our octogenarian involved?
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