"Somebody close to Trump knew what he was about to do, and exploited that inside information to make huge, instant profits."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/4

"This 'sharp and isolated jump in volume' — which you can see for the oil futures market in the chart at the top of this post — was especially bizarre because there were no major news items — no major publicly available news items — to drive sudden big market transactions. The story would be baffling, except that there’s an obvious explanation:"

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/3

"Trump’s sudden climb-down [from his threat to bomb Iranian power plants] was startling. Who could have seen this coming?

The answer is, the person or people who bought large quantities of stock market futures and sold large quantities of oil futures around 15 minutes before Trump’s announcement."

~ Paul Krugman

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/2

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/treason-in-the-futures-markets

"According to the Financial Times, traders placed about $580 million in oil futures bets roughly 15 minutes before a social media post by Donald Trump about Iran talks, which later caused oil prices to drop sharply."

~ Aaron Parnas

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/5

https://aaronparnas.substack.com/p/news-americans-furious-over-tsa-shutdown

(continued from /7)

"and that 'our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all such requests should be directed to Washington.'

The S&P fell 120 points and the price of Brent crude rose to about $100 a barrel.

'What is happening here?' wrote Adam Kobeissi about the stock market in his newsletter."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/8

"Then Iran denied Trump’s claims and said its leaders had had 'no direct or indirect contact' with Trump’s people. Iran’s foreign ministry suggested Trump was trying 'to reduce energy prices and to buy time for implementing his military plans.' It said that countries in the region had approached Iran to begin negotiations" (continued in /8)

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/7

(continued from /10)

"'very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,' a claim that Iran categorically rejected 27 minutes later."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/11

"The defining characteristic of the Trump administration is corruption. But Trump’s corruption reached new heights on Monday. Trump caused a $3 trillion swing in the capitalization of the US securities markets with a claim that the US had made" (continued in /11)

~ Robert B. Hubbell

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/10

https://roberthubbell.substack.com/p/trump-uses-war-as-a-tool-for-market

"They also offer an unnerving implicit philosophy: that we should relate to the future not as citizens or moralists, problem solvers or advocates, but as gamblers, each of us surveying the horizon of possibility somewhat indifferent to human outcomes and looking instead for a betting edge."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/17

"They also offer an unnerving implicit philosophy: that we should relate to the future not as citizens or moralists, problem solvers or advocates, but as gamblers, each of us surveying the horizon of possibility somewhat indifferent to human outcomes and looking instead for a betting edge."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/17

"The new accounts all appear to have been created late last week, around the time when the US president, Donald Trump, appeared to first double down on war with Iran, then suggest in an after-markets Truth Social post that he was considering 'winding down' military operations."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/15

"They stand to make nearly $820,000 if such a deal is reached before 31 March.

An account that made the same bet was created shortly before the US struck Iran on 28 February. It also placed a winning bet on those strikes, which raised similar questions around insider trading, and so far has bet on nothing else."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/14

"Several accounts on the online platform Polymarket laid bets on a US-Iran ceasefire over the weekend that appeared to show signs of insider knowledge, according to experts.

Eight accounts, all newly created around 21 March, bet a total of nearly $70,000 (£52,000) on there being a ceasefire."

~ Aisha Down

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/13

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/23/bets-us-iran-ceasefire-show-signs-of-insider-knowledge-say-experts-polymarket

"With Donald Trump in the White House, the markets have never been a stronger indication of which direction the wind is blowing across the top of the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office."

~ Lucian K. Truscott

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/12

https://luciantruscott.substack.com/p/who-gets-a-vote-about-how-this-war

(continued from /10)

"'very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,' a claim that Iran categorically rejected 27 minutes later."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/11

"The defining characteristic of the Trump administration is corruption. But Trump’s corruption reached new heights on Monday. Trump caused a $3 trillion swing in the capitalization of the US securities markets with a claim that the US had made" (continued in /11)

~ Robert B. Hubbell

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/10

https://roberthubbell.substack.com/p/trump-uses-war-as-a-tool-for-market

"The answer to which social media posters jumped was market manipulation. ...

Today, at the Palm Beach airport, a reporter asked Trump: 'If the war is ending, do you still need $200 billion?' Trump answered: 'We, ah, it’s always nice to have. It’s always nice to have. It’s a very inflamed world.”'

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/9

(continued from /7)

"and that 'our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all such requests should be directed to Washington.'

The S&P fell 120 points and the price of Brent crude rose to about $100 a barrel.

'What is happening here?' wrote Adam Kobeissi about the stock market in his newsletter."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/8

"Then Iran denied Trump’s claims and said its leaders had had 'no direct or indirect contact' with Trump’s people. Iran’s foreign ministry suggested Trump was trying 'to reduce energy prices and to buy time for implementing his military plans.' It said that countries in the region had approached Iran to begin negotiations" (continued in /8)

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/7

"The five-day period in which Trump promised to hold off on this particular threat—the war itself continues—coincides with the days the stock market is open.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, which analyzes the stock market, the S&P 500 surged upward by 240 points. The price of Brent crude oil dropped to $96 a barrel."

~ Heather Cox Richardson

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/6

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/march-23-2026